Vodafone, Airtel may seek block sale of stake in merged tower firm: Analysts

Industry:    2018-04-27

UK’s Vodafone and Bharti AirtelNSE 0.18 % may jointly negotiate a block sale of their combined 66.6% controlling stake to a third-party, postclosure of the Indus-Bharti Infratel merger, with a mix of deep-pocket global investors such as KKR, Providence, Brookfield and American Tower Corp (ATC) as potential buyers, some analysts said.

“We do not believe either Vodafone or Bharti Airtel are long-term holders of the stock and would not be surprised to see a ‘block sale’ of this combined controlling interest to another party, once approvals for the Indus-Bharti Infratel merger have been gained,” brokerage Sanford C Bernstein said in a note to clients seen by ET. The likes of “KKR, Providence, Brookfield or ATC might all be potential buyers of this stake,” the global brokerage said. Bernstein also said neither “Vodafone nor Bharti Airtel are subject to any lock-in periods”.

Vodafone declined to comment while Bharti Airtel did not reply to ET’s queries. Both the telecom companies need to beef up their balance sheets to take on Reliance Jio amid an ongoing brutal price war. Airtel has a net debt of over Rs 95,000 crore while the Vodafone-Idea Cellular combine are estimated to have a net debt of over Rs 1 lakh crore, even after recent cash infusions. Vodafone India is merging its operations with Idea.

Bharti Airtel’s shares fell 2.61%, closing at Rs 408.85 on BSE, while the Bharti Infratel scrip was down 3.19%, closing at Rs 315.50.

Naveen Kulkarni, telecom analyst at PhillipCapital, said: “If Bharti and Vodafone completely exit the tower business, the Indus-Infratel merged entity would become a truly independent tower company, commanding higher valuations”.

Another analyst at a global brokerage, who did not wish to be named, said the “equity valuation of the merged tower entity could easily jump to $18-20 billion from the present $14.6 billion, if Bharti and Vodafone fully exit the Indus-Infratel combined entity.”

Brokerage CLSA, which also sees Bharti Airtel and Vodafone lowering their stakes in the merged tower company, said their holdings in the combined tower company “will be a stock overhang.”

After a 1.1% fall on Wednesday when the merger was announced, the Bharti Infratel shares fell a further 3.2% to Rs 315.50 on BSE Thursday. The Sunil Mittal-led carrier Wednesday said it would engage with potential investors to consider selling a stake in the combined entity.

Bharti Airtel has already sold a 10% stake in Infratel to a private equity consortium of KKR and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, and had been in talks with them to sell more, but those talks are in cold storage currently.

Bharti Airtel and Vodafone – equal shareholders in Indus – will jointly control the merged company to be called Indus Towers Ltd, with equal board representation. The merger conditions give Idea Cellular the option to either sell its 11.15% stake in Indus Towers for Rs 6,500 crore or receive new shares – equal to a 7.1% stake – in the combined tower company. Kumar Birla-led Idea has said in the past it will exit Indus, and analysts expect the loss-making carrier to cash out to spruce up its balance sheet ahead of its merger with Vodafone India. Private equity player Providence will hold a minimum 1.1% stake.

The actual size of Bharti Airtel and Vodafone’s stakes in the merged tower company will hinge on Idea’s decision. Rajiv Sharma, HSBC director and telecoms analyst, however, does not immediately see Vodafone and Bharti Airtel completely exiting the tower business, but expects them to retain a 25-30% combined holding in the merged tower company.

“We see both Bharti and Vodafone bringing down their (respective) shareholdings meaningfully, but not down to zero, post-closure of the Indus-Infratel merger, and would expect them to (jointly) hold 25-30% at least,” Sharma said in a note, a copy of which was reviewed by ET.

Any sharp reduction in equity ownership by Bharti and Vodafone in the merged tower company, he said, would translate in the future-listed Indus Towers being perceived as an independent firm in the medium term in line with global peers.

The estimated 66.6% Bharti-Vodafone combined ownership in the merged tower entity is based on the assumption that Idea and Providence – who own 11.15 % and 4.85% of Indus respectively – will cash out in the run-up to the merger.

print
Source: